New Zealand Statistical Association

NZSA 2009

Victoria University of Wellington

Conference Programme

The conference programme is given below.

Contributed talks have been timetabled in alphabetical order within sessions, except in a few specific cases. The last speaker in each contributed session will be the Session Chair, except in the Student sessions where one of the judges will do that job. Please make sure all contributed talks keep to time (up to 18 minutes talk, plus at least 2 minutes for questions - 20 minutes in total), since we have a busy schedule and some people may wish to swap between rooms at changeover times during the sessions.

Presenters are responsible for ensuring their talk is 'ready to go' when their session starts - please set up at the latest by the end of the refreshment break before each session. Pdf and powerpoint presentations should both work with no problems, directly from a USB. Connections for personal laptops are available but if you want to use a Macintosh, please bring your own adapter. Projectors for overhead transparencies will be available in the rooms, if required.

Please note the Conference Timetable also has a brief outline of the day's events.

Wednesday 2 September

Time Event and Location
8.30am onwards Registration: Maclaurin building, Foyer
9.00-9.10am Welcome and Housekeeping: CO LT122
Welcome Speech: Pat Walsh, Vice-Chancellor, VUW
Housekeeping: John Haywood
9.10-10.10am Plenary Talk 1: CO LT122. Chair: John Haywood
Matt Wand:Variational approximations in semiparametric regression
10.10-10.30am Morning Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
  Session A1: CO 118
Time Series
Chair: Kit Withers
Session A2: CO LT122
Biostatistics 1
Chair: Esther Meenken
Session A3: CO 119
Student Talks 1
Chair: Jim Young
10.30-10.50am Laimonis Kavalieris: Counting breakpoints in time series Rod Ball: A Virtual Institute of Statistical Genetics Cherif Aidara: The use of auxiliary information in dual frame estimation
10.50-11.10am Claudia Kirch: Bootstrapping sequential tests for change-point analysis James Barton: New Zealand's GHG inventory – A beginners guide for NZ statisticians Brigid Betz-Stablein: Modelling glaucoma with censored and error prone predictors
11.10-11.30am Norio Watanabe: Estimation of average trajectory of nearly periodic motion Austina Clark: Estimating species richness and comparing the species similarity using various models Keng-Hao Chang: Robust regression using nonparametric scale normal mixtures
11.30-11.50am Guan Yu Zheng: Viability of reducing survey frequency using administrative data James Degnan: Bimodal distributions of coalescent times given a gene tree in a species tree Chew-Seng Chee: Semiparametric mixture models for symmetric density estimation
11.50am-12.10pm Kit Withers: The distribution of the maximum of a first order moving average: The continuous case Esther Meenken: From town to farm: Compost in Canterbury agricultural systems Tilman Davies: On adaptive kernel estimates of spatially dependent disease risk
12.10-1.10pm Lunch: Maclaurin building, Foyer
  Session B1: CO 118
Probability, Regression and Calibration
Chair: Walter Davis
Session B2: CO LT122
Statistical Thinking and Applications
Chair: Stefanka Chukova
Session B3: CO 119
Student Talks 2
Chair: Shirley Pledger
1.10-1.30pm Clint Jowett: Quantifying the division between professional and amateur rugby in New Zealand Jennifer Brown: Reducing uncertainty about uncertainty James Dawber: An applied analysis of bird counts using generalised additive models
1.30-1.50pm Frances Krsinich: Using hedonic regression to assess the housing rentals component of the New Zealand Consumers Price Index Rolf Turner: A dearth of evidence Sarojinie Fernando: Estimation of geographical relative risk by local polynomial regression
1.50-2.10pm Dong Wang: Properties of a random matrix with multivariate normal columns Irene David: Engaging the University 100 level audience – How to teach statistical thinking to students from a mixed background Diane Hindmarsh: The NSW population health survey and small area estimation and analysis
2.10-2.30pm Selvanayagam Ganesalingam: On triangular approximation to symmetric probability distributions Kuldeep Kumar: Bankruptcy prediction using decision tree technique Miriam Hodge: Calculation of fix-rate bias for automated telemetry systems
2.30-2.50pm Walter Davis: Playing with matches: Probabilistic linkage, uncertainty bias and variance Stefanka Chukova and Dimitar Christozov: Analysing truncated warranty data: A stratification approach Ting Wang: Hidden Markov models and mutual information investigation of possible link between GPS measurements and earthquakes
2.50-3.20pm Afternoon Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
  Session C1: CO 118
Longitudinal Data
Chair: Ivy Liu
Session C2: CO LT122
Testing and Estimation
Chair: Peter Thomson
Session C3: CO 119
Student Talks 3
Chair: Judith Archibald
3.20-3.40pm Deborah Brunning: Experiences with the design and analysis of longitudinal data at Statistics New Zealand John Haywood: Here today, gone tomorrow? Exponential reign lengths revealed and explained Marissa Isidro: Intercensal updating of small area estimates
3.40-4.00pm John Bryant: Attrition in the Longitudinal Immigration Survey New Zealand Steve Quinn: A comparison of logistic regression goodness-of-fit statistics when applied to the log link Hinrich Kozik: A case for Q? An application of Q-methodology
4.00-4.20pm Reuben Kendall and Mike Camden: Confidentiality of longitudinal collections Robin Willink: A general construction of a shrinkage confidence interval Anna MacDonald: Mixture of parametric and non-parametric models for extreme values with threshold estimation
4.20-4.40pm Chikako van Koten: Longitudinal analysis of count data: A GEE approach Lingyun Zhang: A note on Bartlett’s M test for homogeneity Aghababaei Jazi Mansour: Some extensions of the geometric distribution
4.40-5.00pm Ivy Liu: A hybrid method for longitudinal data Peter Thomson: Mixed methods for fitting the GEV distribution Katharina Parry: Traffic network-based modelling
5.05pm NZSA Annual General Meeting: CO LT122
7.00pm Pre-dinner drinks: The Skyline restaurant, 1 Upland Rd, Kelburn
7.30pm Conference Dinner: The Skyline restaurant, 1 Upland Rd, Kelburn

Thursday 3 September

Time Event and Location
8.15-9.00am Young Statisticians' Breakfast/Networking: Maclaurin building, Foyer
  Session D1: CO 118
Bayesian Statistics
Chair: Richard Arnold
Session D2: CO LT122
NZ Society and Economy
Chair: Steven Johnston
Session D3: CO 119
Biostatistics 2 and Analytics
Chair: Alastair Scott
9.00-9.20am Rahul Mukerjee: Highest posterior density regions based on empirical-type likelihoods: Role of data-dependent priors Mike Doherty: Sampling errors on the six degrees of separation Yuichi Hirose: Efficiency of profile/partial likelihood in the Cox model
9.20-9.40am Magnus McGee: Bayesian calibration in Microsimulation of Disease and Cancer in New Zealand (MoDCoNZ) Brian Easton and Ryan You: Demographic determinants of life satisfaction Evan Stubbs: Feedback from the field: How our graduates are letting down the profession
9.40-10.00am Richard Penny: Imputation variance estimation for the Accommodation Occupancy Survey Brian Easton, Ryan You and Sally Casswell: Life satisfaction and drinking: A preliminary investigation Saibal Chattopadhyay: Exponential clinical trials: Sequential comparison under asymmetric penalty
10.00-10.20am Finlay Thompson: Building a two stage Bayesian dolphin capture model with JAGS Jamas Enright: The effects of health and wealth on the labour supply and retirement decisions of older New Zealanders Alastair Scott: Non-response in case-control studies
10.20-10.40am Richard Arnold: Capture-Recapture estimation using finite mixtures of arbitrary dimension Steven Johnston: Using statistical methods to answer policy questions: Sole parents, employment incentives and benefit receipt  
10.40-11.00am Morning Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
11.00-12noon Plenary Talk 2: CO LT122. Chair: John Haywood
Vijay Nair: Process monitoring, anomaly detection, and beyond: new directions and applications
12.00-1.00pm Lunch: Maclaurin building, Foyer
1.00-2.00pm Statistics Education parallel workshops, first stream: CO 118 Session on the future of the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics: CO LT122
Chair: Ian Westbrooke
Statistics Education parallel workshops, second stream: CO 119
1.00-1.30pm Maxine Pfannkuch: Comparative statistical reasoning: Some essential dialogues   Tim Burgess: The challenges of using statistical investigations in primary school classrooms
1.30-2.00pm Paul Bucknall, Mike Camden and Nathaniel Pihama: A website of statistical riches   Derek Smith: Probability trees and two way tables
  Statistics Education talks: CO LT122
Chair: Mike Camden
2.00-2.20pm Mike Camden: New resources for learning of the Curriculum’s statistics
2.20-2.40pm John Harraway: A new teaching resource for Year 13
2.40-3.00pm Kevin Burns: How smart are birdbrains? Number sense in the New Zealand robin
3.00-3.20pm Afternoon Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
  Statistics Education talks: CO LT122
Chair: Mike Camden
3.20-3.40pm Robin Averill: Learning in Statistics: Perspectives of secondary school students
3.40-4.00pm Alasdair Noble and Anne Lawrence: One good tern...
  Statistics Education parallel workshops, first stream: CO 118   Statistics Education parallel workshops, second stream: CO 119
4.00-5.00pm Robin Averill: Ideas for teaching statistics in junior secondary school classrooms   Sandi Tait-McCutcheon: Framing Statistics and Probability Level 1 to 5
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