Conference Programme

The conference programme is given below.

Contributed talks have been timetabled in alphabetical order within sessions, except in a few specific cases. The last speaker in each contributed session will be the Session Chair, except in the Student sessions where one of the judges will do that job. Please make sure all contributed talks keep to time (up to 18 minutes talk, plus at least 2 minutes for questions - 20 minutes in total), since we have a busy schedule and some people may wish to swap between rooms at changeover times during the sessions.

Presenters are responsible for ensuring their talk is 'ready to go' when their session starts - please set up at the latest by the end of the refreshment break before each session. Pdf and powerpoint presentations should both work with no problems, directly from a USB. Connections for personal laptops are available but if you want to use a Macintosh, please bring your own adapter. Projectors for overhead transparencies will be available in the rooms, if required.

Please note the Conference Timetable also has a brief outline of the day's events.

Wednesday 2 September

Time	Event and Location
8.30am onwards	Registration: Maclaurin building, Foyer
9.00-9.10am	Welcome and Housekeeping: CO LT122 Welcome Speech: Pat Walsh, Vice-Chancellor, VUW Housekeeping: John Haywood
9.10-10.10am	Plenary Talk 1: CO LT122. Chair: John Haywood Matt Wand:Variational approximations in semiparametric regression
10.10-10.30am	Morning Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
	Session A1: CO 118 Time Series Chair: Kit Withers	Session A2: CO LT122 Biostatistics 1 Chair: Esther Meenken	Session A3: CO 119 Student Talks 1 Chair: Jim Young
10.30-10.50am	Laimonis Kavalieris: Counting breakpoints in time series	Rod Ball: A Virtual Institute of Statistical Genetics	Cherif Aidara: The use of auxiliary information in dual frame estimation
10.50-11.10am	Claudia Kirch: Bootstrapping sequential tests for change-point analysis	James Barton: New Zealand's GHG inventory – A beginners guide for NZ statisticians	Brigid Betz-Stablein: Modelling glaucoma with censored and error prone predictors
11.10-11.30am	Norio Watanabe: Estimation of average trajectory of nearly periodic motion	Austina Clark: Estimating species richness and comparing the species similarity using various models	Keng-Hao Chang: Robust regression using nonparametric scale normal mixtures
11.30-11.50am	Guan Yu Zheng: Viability of reducing survey frequency using administrative data	James Degnan: Bimodal distributions of coalescent times given a gene tree in a species tree	Chew-Seng Chee: Semiparametric mixture models for symmetric density estimation
11.50am-12.10pm	Kit Withers: The distribution of the maximum of a first order moving average: The continuous case	Esther Meenken: From town to farm: Compost in Canterbury agricultural systems	Tilman Davies: On adaptive kernel estimates of spatially dependent disease risk
12.10-1.10pm	Lunch: Maclaurin building, Foyer
	Session B1: CO 118 Probability, Regression and Calibration Chair: Walter Davis	Session B2: CO LT122 Statistical Thinking and Applications Chair: Stefanka Chukova	Session B3: CO 119 Student Talks 2 Chair: Shirley Pledger
1.10-1.30pm	Clint Jowett: Quantifying the division between professional and amateur rugby in New Zealand	Jennifer Brown: Reducing uncertainty about uncertainty	James Dawber: An applied analysis of bird counts using generalised additive models
1.30-1.50pm	Frances Krsinich: Using hedonic regression to assess the housing rentals component of the New Zealand Consumers Price Index	Rolf Turner: A dearth of evidence	Sarojinie Fernando: Estimation of geographical relative risk by local polynomial regression
1.50-2.10pm	Dong Wang: Properties of a random matrix with multivariate normal columns	Irene David: Engaging the University 100 level audience – How to teach statistical thinking to students from a mixed background	Diane Hindmarsh: The NSW population health survey and small area estimation and analysis
2.10-2.30pm	Selvanayagam Ganesalingam: On triangular approximation to symmetric probability distributions	Kuldeep Kumar: Bankruptcy prediction using decision tree technique	Miriam Hodge: Calculation of fix-rate bias for automated telemetry systems
2.30-2.50pm	Walter Davis: Playing with matches: Probabilistic linkage, uncertainty bias and variance	Stefanka Chukova and Dimitar Christozov: Analysing truncated warranty data: A stratification approach	Ting Wang: Hidden Markov models and mutual information investigation of possible link between GPS measurements and earthquakes
2.50-3.20pm	Afternoon Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
	Session C1: CO 118 Longitudinal Data Chair: Ivy Liu	Session C2: CO LT122 Testing and Estimation Chair: Peter Thomson	Session C3: CO 119 Student Talks 3 Chair: Judith Archibald
3.20-3.40pm	Deborah Brunning: Experiences with the design and analysis of longitudinal data at Statistics New Zealand	John Haywood: Here today, gone tomorrow? Exponential reign lengths revealed and explained	Marissa Isidro: Intercensal updating of small area estimates
3.40-4.00pm	John Bryant: Attrition in the Longitudinal Immigration Survey New Zealand	Steve Quinn: A comparison of logistic regression goodness-of-fit statistics when applied to the log link	Hinrich Kozik: A case for Q? An application of Q-methodology
4.00-4.20pm	Reuben Kendall and Mike Camden: Confidentiality of longitudinal collections	Robin Willink: A general construction of a shrinkage confidence interval	Anna MacDonald: Mixture of parametric and non-parametric models for extreme values with threshold estimation
4.20-4.40pm	Chikako van Koten: Longitudinal analysis of count data: A GEE approach	Lingyun Zhang: A note on Bartlett’s M test for homogeneity	Aghababaei Jazi Mansour: Some extensions of the geometric distribution
4.40-5.00pm	Ivy Liu: A hybrid method for longitudinal data	Peter Thomson: Mixed methods for fitting the GEV distribution	Katharina Parry: Traffic network-based modelling
5.05pm	NZSA Annual General Meeting: CO LT122
7.00pm	Pre-dinner drinks: The Skyline restaurant, 1 Upland Rd, Kelburn
7.30pm	Conference Dinner: The Skyline restaurant, 1 Upland Rd, Kelburn

Thursday 3 September

Time	Event and Location
8.15-9.00am	Young Statisticians' Breakfast/Networking: Maclaurin building, Foyer
	Session D1: CO 118 Bayesian Statistics Chair: Richard Arnold	Session D2: CO LT122 NZ Society and Economy Chair: Steven Johnston	Session D3: CO 119 Biostatistics 2 and Analytics Chair: Alastair Scott
9.00-9.20am	Rahul Mukerjee: Highest posterior density regions based on empirical-type likelihoods: Role of data-dependent priors	Mike Doherty: Sampling errors on the six degrees of separation	Yuichi Hirose: Efficiency of profile/partial likelihood in the Cox model
9.20-9.40am	Magnus McGee: Bayesian calibration in Microsimulation of Disease and Cancer in New Zealand (MoDCoNZ)	Brian Easton and Ryan You: Demographic determinants of life satisfaction	Evan Stubbs: Feedback from the field: How our graduates are letting down the profession
9.40-10.00am	Richard Penny: Imputation variance estimation for the Accommodation Occupancy Survey	Brian Easton, Ryan You and Sally Casswell: Life satisfaction and drinking: A preliminary investigation	Saibal Chattopadhyay: Exponential clinical trials: Sequential comparison under asymmetric penalty
10.00-10.20am	Finlay Thompson: Building a two stage Bayesian dolphin capture model with JAGS	Jamas Enright: The effects of health and wealth on the labour supply and retirement decisions of older New Zealanders	Alastair Scott: Non-response in case-control studies
10.20-10.40am	Richard Arnold: Capture-Recapture estimation using finite mixtures of arbitrary dimension	Steven Johnston: Using statistical methods to answer policy questions: Sole parents, employment incentives and benefit receipt
10.40-11.00am	Morning Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
11.00-12noon	Plenary Talk 2: CO LT122. Chair: John Haywood Vijay Nair: Process monitoring, anomaly detection, and beyond: new directions and applications
12.00-1.00pm	Lunch: Maclaurin building, Foyer
1.00-2.00pm	Statistics Education parallel workshops, first stream: CO 118	Session on the future of the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics: CO LT122 Chair: Ian Westbrooke	Statistics Education parallel workshops, second stream: CO 119
1.00-1.30pm	Maxine Pfannkuch: Comparative statistical reasoning: Some essential dialogues		Tim Burgess: The challenges of using statistical investigations in primary school classrooms
1.30-2.00pm	Paul Bucknall, Mike Camden and Nathaniel Pihama: A website of statistical riches		Derek Smith: Probability trees and two way tables
	Statistics Education talks: CO LT122 Chair: Mike Camden
2.00-2.20pm	Mike Camden: New resources for learning of the Curriculum’s statistics
2.20-2.40pm	John Harraway: A new teaching resource for Year 13
2.40-3.00pm	Kevin Burns: How smart are birdbrains? Number sense in the New Zealand robin
3.00-3.20pm	Afternoon Tea/Coffee: Maclaurin building, Foyer
	Statistics Education talks: CO LT122 Chair: Mike Camden
3.20-3.40pm	Robin Averill: Learning in Statistics: Perspectives of secondary school students
3.40-4.00pm	Alasdair Noble and Anne Lawrence: One good tern...
	Statistics Education parallel workshops, first stream: CO 118		Statistics Education parallel workshops, second stream: CO 119
4.00-5.00pm	Robin Averill: Ideas for teaching statistics in junior secondary school classrooms		Sandi Tait-McCutcheon: Framing Statistics and Probability Level 1 to 5