Magnus McGee

University of Otago, Christchurch

Bayesian Calibration in Microsimulation of Disease and Cancer in New Zealand (MoDCoNZ)

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the major causes of illness and death in New Zealand (NZ). A microsimulation model to examine the effect of published guidelines and recommendations on treatment of CRC is presented. The model simulates a large number of individual life histories based on the New Zealand population and the epidemiology of CRC. Methods used by other modelers are briefly reviewed including the choice of parameterization and optimization methods. Bayesian calibration based around application of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and rejection sample methods are presented for the MoDCoNZ models.