STAT 436: Forecasting

2009 Trimester 2

STAT 436 CRN 8111, 15 Points (2009 2/3)
Coordinator: Prof Estate Khmaladze
Prerequisites: Approved 48 pts from 300-level OPRE, QUAN or STAT courses
Lectures: Wed 2-3 3-4 timetable
Recommended Reading: To be announced
Description: A general introduction to the theory and practice of time series prediction and signal extraction using stationary and non-stationary models. Specific topics include: an introduction to basic time series models and prediction; ARMA and ARIMA models; trends and seasonal components; detection of abrupt (structural) changes and estimation of change-points; analysis of marginal distributions. The theoretical material will be systematically illustrated by extensive analysis of deregulated electricity markets. In particular, pricing of various put options will be considered.
 

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