BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
METHOD:PUBLISH
PRODID:Data::ICal 0.24
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Pacific/Auckland
X-LIC-LOCATION:Pacific/Auckland
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
DTSTART:19700927T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=9;BYDAY=-1SU
TZNAME:NZDT
TZOFFSETFROM:+1200
TZOFFSETTO:+1300
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
DTSTART:19700405T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=4;BYDAY=1SU
TZNAME:NZST
TZOFFSETFROM:+1300
TZOFFSETTO:+1200
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
CATEGORIES:SMS Seminars
CONTACT:Stuart Donovan\, Motu Research
DESCRIPTION:Joint Seminar between the School of Mathematics & Statistics an
 d the School of History\, Philosophy\, Political Science and International
  Relations\n\nRecent decades have seen rapid progress in the development a
 nd\napplication of models to predict election outcomes. Typically\, these 
 models seek to aggregate\, or synthesize\, information from multiple polit
 ical polls in such a way that they can generate probabilistic predictions 
 about election outcomes. In this talk\, we’ll discuss the development an
 d application of one such model\, namely the NZ Herald – Motu Research p
 oll-of-polls\, which has been launched in the lead-up to the 2026 General 
 Election. The talk will cover relevant aspects of the New Zealand context\
 , the general structure of political polling data\, our approach to modell
 ing election outcomes\, and highlight several useful insights provided by 
 the model. To finish\, we will discuss some potential limitations of the m
 odel and potential avenues for further research.
DTEND;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20260903T160000
DTSTAMP:20260822T231453Z
DTSTART;TZID=Pacific/Auckland:20260903T151000
LOCATION:MYLT220\, Murphy 220
ORGANIZER:Stuart Donovan\, Motu Research
SUMMARY:Stuart Donovan\, Motu Research - Modelling political preferences: A
 n introduction to the NZHerald – Motu Research poll-of-polls
UID:seminar_sms1041_20260819144133
URL:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR