New Zealand Statistical Association 2024 Conference

Sarah Croft

University of Otago

A Bayesian close-kin mark-recapture model using pedigree reconstruction

This is joint work with Matthew Schofield, Michael Black and Richard Barker

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) models present an attractive, cost-efficient method to estimate animal population abundance. CKMR adapts the mark-recapture model to incorporate genetic samples, either as a replacement or supplement to physical tags, from captured individuals and identify parent-offspring or sibling pairs within the sample. The current CKMR models require sparse data and are limited to large, non-inbred populations. As a result, these models are not appropriate for use in conservation management of many endangered and at-risk species. We are developing CKMR methods for small populations by reconstructing the population’s pedigree from the observed individuals using their genotype and supplementary age data. The true underlying pedigree completely describes the population over time and pedigree reconstruction allows for the estimation of both abundance and population structure without making large population assumptions. In this talk I will present an overview of the Bayesian pedigree reconstruction approach for population estimation using dead recovery data and the challenges associated with the full pedigree approach.