New Zealand Statistical Association 2024 Conference

Len Cook

Te Ngira

Where missing values really matter for models in public policy – real life examples

This is joint work with Alistair Gray

Missing values that result from inadequate model specification may be caused by poor validation of model assumptions, or inferring causation from associations that are anecdotal or appear relevant but result from limitations in the then-available quantitative information. Some examples will be given from public policy, including an analysis of the inappropriate methods to produce counts of the number abused in care by a consulting firm. Why must fitness for purpose meet a tougher test when the results are to be placed in the public domain. Some lessons for Social Investment type models will be suggested.